Water is generally in abundant supply in Scotland. Information about recent past changes in climate indicates that Scotland has become wetter since 1961, with an average increase in winter rainfall of almost 60% in the north and west, and an increased of 20% in average rainfall for the whole country (Recent Climate Trends in Scotland).
In addition to an average increase in rainfall there are indications that spells of very wet weather are occurring more frequently increasing the risk of flooding.
How will climate change impact rainfall?
Climate projections for the 21st century indicate that the frequency and intensity of rainfall is likely to increase during winter months. For example, under a high carbon emission scenario climate projections for the West of Scotland indicate:
- An increase in average winter precipitation of between 4% and 31% by the 2050’s;
- An increase in average winter precipitation of between 12% and 55% by the 2080’s;
Visit the Future Climate: UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) pages for more information about projected changes in climate.
What impacts have occurred as a result of extreme rainfall?
As part of Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) projects local authorities identified 507 impacts occurring as a result of excessive rainfall, sometimes combined with other weather.
33% of the impacts identified related to damage to infrastructure or disruption to processes, this includes road closures as a result of flooding or landslides, damage to railway lines, damage to bridges and cancellation of air and ferry travel services.
9% of impacts related to damage to buildings and structures, this includes flood damage to residential, business and community buildings and, damage to roofs and masonry caused by extreme rainfall and wind.
Other impacts included damage to health, cancellation of events and power failures.
A national log of the extreme rainfall impacts recorded as part of LCLIP project media reviews is provided below. Please note that this information has been extracted from the national LCLIP weather event log available in the ‘overview of weather events’ tab.
Local consequences of extreme rainfall
As part of LCLIP projects local authorities frequently identified flooding events and landslides as having severe consequences for local communities. These events had multiple impacts and consequences impacting a wide range of organisations and individuals.
Visit the local area section to find out more about the consequences of flooding and landslides including:
- Flooding affecting Angus communities during October, November and December 2002;
- Flooding affecting Clackmannanshire during January 2008;
- Flooding affecting Fife during August 2008 and July 2009;
- Flooding and landslides affecting Perth and Kinross during August 2004