The Future: Climate Projections

Met Office UK Climate Projections

The 2018 UK Climate Projections, produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre, provide up-to-date information about the potential future climate in Scotland. The projections provide a range of potential climate outcomes, based on a set of four pathways for greenhouse gas emissions: a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6); two medium emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 6.0); and a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

Across all emission scenarios presented in the UK climate projections there is a general consensus that Scotland’s future climate will be characterised by:

  • Average temperatures increasing across all seasons
  • Our weather will remain variable and may become more variable
  • Typical summers will be warmer and drier
  • Typical winters will be milder and wetter
  • Intense, heavy rainfall events will increase in frequency in both winter and summer
  • Sea levels will rise
  • There will be fewer days / periods of frost and snowfall

Ultimately the amount of change that occurs will depend on how successful we are in reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally.

UKCP18 data, guidance and other supplementary material can be accessed through the Met Office Website UKCP pages.

International Projections

Information on international projections can be seen in the IPCC's AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 here.